What we have learned from previous crisis:Discover, Design, Decide, and Delivery
COVID-19 is a deep humanitarian crisis, which also influences the global economy. In the last research, we analyzed the external environment, includes marketing demand and consumer behavior. In this article, we are going to review the internal environment – management–crisis. In this part, we will review a fourfold manner that causes management failure from previous economy crisis experiences.
Factors 1 – Inadequate Discovery:The first failure is the leaders must analyze the current situations accurately, deeply, and speedily. Companies usually reflect an optimist bias in initial assessment, then in reassessment as well. Obviously, the false hopes or unrealistic imagination cause inaccurate decisions. At which point, the crisis has worsened, time and resources has wasted.
Factors 2 – Poor Decision Making: Most management crises are callused by poor decision making. Firstly, bad decisions can result from fake data or incomplete information. Secondly, reluctance or inaction to act until “all the factors are in” is a sillier decision. Thirdly, decision-makers create solutions by analogizing a new situation without any assessment. Some leaders use past experiences to evaluate current situations. Fourthly, political pressures also influence leaders astray. For example, in expensive projects, reputations – often stake at large. Fifthly, pressures often cause unforeseen problems, such as inefficient timelines and a limited budget.
Factors 3 – Constrained Solution Design: Many crises have many technique problems, which must be addressed with tailored solutions. Responding organizations should not constrained by poor solutions. In early 2020, China, South Korean, and Germany developed the PCR testing policy as the standard. But the United States made some ineffective tests and decisions, which can’t control the spread of the virus.
Factors 4 – Delivery Failure: The delivery problem may cause unpredictable and constant risks. Random errors can destroy most well-thought-out plans. Some groups look for patches to preserve the flawed response rather than recognize the root problem. Managers should have good judgment and strategic thinking to minimize delays and failures.
The nerve center is designed to resolve these four challenge questions. In the next part, we are going to create a mode to face the crisis from COVID-19.
观点总结：企业在应对大规模不可抗力灾害的时候，往往会面临外部和内部的双重压力。上一期专题，我们分析了新冠肺炎疫情下，消费者行为变化。那么本期主题，我们将分析从内部引发的压力 – 管理危机。结合以往大规模灾难所带来的企业管理上的失败经验，我们可以总结出以下四个症结。首先，领导者必须准确、深入和快速的分析当下发生的状况。过于乐观的预测，往往会给公司带来不可逆转的损失。其次，大多数管理危机来源于决策因素。导致错误决策的原因是虚假数据或者不完整的信息。而领导者对此视而不见更是一个愚蠢的决定。而企业的声望也是影响领导者做出正确决策的因素，面对高成本的压力，管理者们该何去何从。再次，正确的解决方案极为重要。例如今年年初，中国、韩国和德国等企业将核酸检测作为衡量员工的标准无疑是正确的。而美国的企业则是在进行决策时耽误了时间，导致病毒飞速扩散。最后，方案实施也有可能带来不可预测的风险。其中最大的问题是拆了东墙补西墙，而缺乏全局思维。管理者应当具有良好的判断力，大局观和战略思维。
Overview of the Integrated COVID-19 Nerve Center
Nerve center is an integrated team, which includes five teams, each responsible for a number of work streams. The principle of the business model is based on the agile management. The purpose is to create a COVID-19 response system for all information and actions. It must contain close two-way communication with all teams. The C-suite is the core, which an epidemiological expert, a project coordinator, and a scenario-planning analyst. The company should empower the command and resources to the team. The team’s responsibilities can be summarized as follows:
Create a safety and health policy, which acts as the single source of truth for crisis issues.
Develop a clear logistics network that the resources are deployed where and when.
Coordinating the portfolio of remedial actions across the work streams of all teams, based on scenarios and triggers
Aligning team leaders on scenarios, with the help of roundtables and other exercises as needed
观点总结：“神经网络中心”是一个集成式的团队，由五个部分组成，分别是大脑核心决策团队、消费者关系维护团队、办公环境监察团队、企业经济压力测试团队和供应链团队。其中核心决策团队需要由，病理学专家、项目协调员和方案规划师构成。每个团队的职责各异但是相互依存。该模型的原理与敏捷管理类似，其目的是建立一个针对新冠肺炎疫情下，企业危机响应系统。“神经网络中心”必须保障密切的双向沟通，以确保项目企业运营通道畅通。团队的主要职责如下：
制定安全卫生政策，将其作为解决危机问题的唯一参考标准。
建立清晰的物流网络，以确保资源在准确地部署在正确的时间和地点。
根据场景和触发因素，协调所有团队工作流中的补救措施组合。
根据需要在圆桌会议和其他练习的帮助下协调团队负责人。
本期主题的参考文献：
Lives and Livelihoods: Assessing the near-term impact of COVID-19 on US workers.Published by McKinsey & Company; Author:Susan Lund,Kweilin Ellingrud,Bryan Hancock,James Manyika, andAndré Dua.Date: 2020/04/02
国际商学院| 数据战略与商业创新研究小组 曹振宇
