Business Issues:
Customer behavior is the third issue. In the United States, 60% of transactions were happened on the internet in the past four months. But an interesting question we should consider, will the customers return to traditional shopping way after virus recedes. If the proposition was, companies shouldn’t move all of the business to the digital platform.
The fourth problem is agile management. Nowadays, only a few companies have the ability to adapt to global uncertainty, such as war, earthquake, economic crisis, or virus. For the organization, we should create a new “muscle” model, an enterprise-wide ability to absorb uncertainty, quickly learning the issues, finally incorporate lessons into the model quickly.
观点总结：回归正常运营是企业在当下急需解决的问题。企业在复工的时候会面临什么样的问题呢？麦肯锡的行研报告显示，目前有四个问题亟待解决。这些问题是近四个月来，麦肯锡通过长期追踪全球合作企业运营的出来的结果。第一个问题是安全。新冠肺炎尚未出现好转的形式，那么企业如何保障员工的安全是不可忽视的问题。另一个有趣的点在于，员工的身体健康也会影响到自己的职业生涯。一些美国企业让身体状态不佳或者体弱的员工在家待业。第二个问题是消费者的行为也会改变。目前，数字化营销成为常态，大部分消费者更愿意选择线上购物而非人员聚集较多的线下。但是有一个问题也不可忽视，当疫情退散，消费者是否还会愿意继续使用数字平台呢？还是说他们会回归到传统商业平台上。第四个问题是敏捷管理。目前企业应对大规模灾害或者经济衰退的能力不足。企业没有建立一个有效的学习和应变机制，来面对不可抗力因素。
Research Goals:
Many companies are re-developing business models and configuring resources. It is risky if business transformations are blind. We are going to analyze four forces that help companies to create a “muscle” model and turn back to the next normal.
1)The metamorphosis of demand
No one has failed to notice that many consumers shop online for groceries in the past four months. An interesting phenomenon is there is a 40% growth of first-time consumers, who never use online retail before, use digital goods and services. Recent McKinsey surveys find that 13% of retail customers except to use mobile banking services since COVID-19 started. In summary, we can predict the digital platform will change customer loyalties in the next few years.
Another phenomenon is entertainment consumption has fallen. The reason is not only continuing personal health concerns but also the increased caring about family rather than luxury products.
2)Rapid changes in the workforce
Mckinsey Global Institute study finds that up to 1/3 of US jobs may vulnerable to furloughs, pay cuts, and layoffs. One of the reasons is health-related issues, including workers who are ill or vulnerable to infection. So, the health body is a key parameter to influence unemployment.
The second change is the requirements of technical skills are in short apply. For example, some B2B companies need talents who have digital sales and data analytical skills. You can go to search Google Star Plan (谷歌海星计划) in China.
“Office at Home” is the key change in the workforce. But mangers have to face two issues: measurement of work efficiency and lack of multimedia devices.
3)Shifts in regulations
Governments around the world are using varied philosophies of public health. For example, there are 13 states in the United States are not allowed any generations. 24 stated ban gatherings of over ten people. Political challenges, social behaviors, and economic realities make business leaders are understandably anxious to protect employees while ensuring compliance.
4)Safety can increase confidence
An important lesson for companies is the increasing economic activity and reduced physical distancing has driven a resurgence of the virus. Any business decisions should not ignore health implications. I guess life healthy behaviors and safety will be the essential parameters for strategical decisions. Currently, testing is a critical method to ensure safety in the workplace. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests, serological tests, and other new medical methods can help companies set working rules, such as distancing guidelines, stagger shifts, and so on. The test results should open to the public, which can improve confidence to the company’s future.
观点总结：企业在制定运营复苏策略上可以从一下四个点来思考。首先是消费者的行为。从现在已有的数据可以看出，消费者在特殊时期更加关注家庭健康而非娱乐或奢侈品。所以，企业在制定营销策略的时候，更加需要关注这个趋势。其次，是数字技能需求增加。一方面，企业会实行线上办公，这要求员工能够快速的学习和使用数字化平台的使用。另一方面，企业要求员工必须掌握数字技能，例如数字营销，数据分析等。再次，对于跨国企业，各个国家会出台不同的经济和公共卫生政策，如何将不同区域的部门整合起来，制订一套统一的管理标准，就需要管理者重新思考当下的管理政策是否可行。最后，安全是增加消费者和员工信心的重要手段。目前，大部分复工企业都会检测员工的核酸，血液和提问。我们有理由相信，未来的决策制定必须要考虑员工的健康问题。另外，测试数据向公众公开也能增加消费者的信心。
下期预告:
对于企业来说，如何应对大规模衰退或者动乱时期，是及其重要的生存能力。新冠肺炎是一次考验企业适应和激励转型的重要事件。对于如何调动员工和客户共同面对困难，并且稳定运营是我们下一期讲解的问题。你将探索一个全新的职能部门- “Nerve Center”。我们从敏捷管理的角度，思考如何在特殊时期应对客户流失、财政压力、员工和客户危机。另一个我们会讨论的点是，在非特殊时期，“Nerve Center”需要做什么样的准备。尽请期待。
本期主题的参考文献：
Responding to coronavirus: The minimum viable nerve center.Published by McKinsey & Company; Author: Mihir Mysore, Bob Sterfels, and Matt Wilson. Date: 2020/05/21
Lives and Livelihoods: Assessing the near-term impact of COVID-19 on US workers.Published by McKinsey & Company; Author: Susan Lund, Kweilin Ellingrud, Bryan Hancock, James Manyika, and André Dua. Date: 2020/04/02
国际商学院| 数据战略与商业创新研究小组 曹振宇
